The US Non-Farm Payrolls; What To Expect

All eyes will be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls today! The US Jobs Report will be released at 13:30 p.m. (GMT).

Why Is This Important?

The Non-Farm Payrolls track the change in the number of people employed by the US in manufacturing, construction, and goods companies. It does not include farming industry employment. The US Jobs Report is so important for the upcoming Fed decisions.

The selling pressure continues in the US Dollar with optimism over the rollout of vaccines and talk of new U.S. fiscal stimulus prompting risk-on trades.

Optimism over U.S. stimulus talks and bets on a successful roll-out of vaccines are leading traders to take bets on global growth and thus riskier currencies at the expense of the safe-haven dollar, the world’s reserve currency, particularly with the Federal Reserve committed to keeping rates low for years.

Last Wednesday, the ADP report on private payrolls showed only 307K jobs were added last month which is below than expected.

US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to ease to 469K in November from 638K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 6.8% from 6.9%. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to come out 4.3%, year on year basis.

In addition to US Jobs Report, Canada Trade Balance and Canada Unemployment Rate will be widely followed by the market. 

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: The EURUSD pair rose above the 1.2046 major support level. If the upward movement continues above 1.2046, we will see 1.2214 as a resistance level. On the downside, if the price drops below 1.2046, we will follow the next support level at 1.1819.

Support : 1.2046 - 1.1819 - 1.1744 

Resistance : 1.2214 - 1.2391 - 1.2536

GBP/USD: The GBPUSD pair jumped up from 1.3313 and moved up above the 1.3392 main support level. As long as the pair stays above 1.3392 on a four hourly basis, the upward movement may gain more momentum and the key resistance levels can be found at 1.3519 and 1.3599. On the other hand, if the pair falls below 1.3392, the next support level is holding at 1.3313 again.

Support: 1.3392 - 1.3313 - 1.3231

Resistance: 1.3517 - 1.3599 - 1.3688

EUR/JPY: The EURJPY pair moved down below the 126.69 main resistance level. If the currency stays below 126.59 on a four hourly basis, we will watch the support levels at 125.85 and 125.07. On the other hand, If the pair rises above 126.69, the next resistance level is holding at 127.52.

Support: 125.85 - 125.07 - 124.24

Resistance: 126.69 - 127.52 - 128.39

GOLD: We are closely watching the 1829 main level in the Gold Price. As long as the price stays above 1829, on a four hourly basis, we will see the daily resistance level at 1854. On the downside, if the price breaks down below 1829, the next support level will be at 1805.

Support: 1829 - 1805 - 1785

Resistance: 1854 - 1873 - 1904

04 Dec 20 (Fri)

08:44 am