Weekly Technical Analysis For June 28th to July 2nd, 2021

Pay Attention To US Nonfarm Payrolls This Week

EUR/USD: Last week's data showed that the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.5%, below expectations of an 0.6% increase. In the 12 months through May, the core PCE price index shot up 3.4%, the largest gain since April 1992.

Fed policymakers have been offering differing viewpoints on how long inflation is likely to stay high and when it will be appropriate to tighten monetary policy after the Fed last week surprised markets by forecasting two rate hikes in 2023.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he expects high inflation readings will not last and many Americans will return to the labor market in the fall

Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said the U.S. economy could possibly reach maximum employment and inflation that would merit an interest rate increase next year, but it will be important to watch the data.

US President Joe Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal will continue to boost U.S. markets. Infrastructure spending is likely to boost the U.S. economy, though probably not in the short-term.

Looking ahead, keep your eye on the US Jobs Report on Friday. US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise 675K in June from 559K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 5.7% from 5.8%. Average hourly earnings are expected to come out 3.6%, year on a year basis.

In addition to that, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on Pending Home Sales, ISM Manufacturing PMI, CB Consumer Confidence and Factory Orders

US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is expected to ease slightly to 61.0 from 61.2. A better-than-expected realization may provide some support for the US Dollar.

If we look at the Eurozone, we will closely watch the German Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. On a year-on-year basis, the German CPI is expected to ease to 2.3% from 2.5%. We will also follow the German Unemployment Rate on Wednesday. The Unemployment Rate for June is expected to stay at 5.9%.

On Friday, ECB President Lagarde will participate in a panel discussion titled What have we learnt in 2020 in France.

The EURUSD pair is closed last week above the 1.1919 main support level. If the pair stays above 1.1919, on a four-hourly basis, we will follow 1.1994 and 1.2046 as resistance levels. On the downside, if the price drops below 1.1919, we will follow the next support level at 1.1867

Support: 1.1919 - 1.1867 - 1.1819

Resistance : 1.1994 - 1.2046 - 1.2093

GBP/USD: Sterling moved down last week after the BoE nine monetary policymakers voted 8-1 once again to keep their government bond-buying programme at 875 billion pounds

The GBPUSD pair closed the week just below the 1.3883 main resistance level. As long as the pair stays below 1.3883, on a four-hourly basis, we will follow 1.3784 as a daily support level. Otherwise, if the price rises above 1.3883, the next daily resistance level will be at 1.4005

Support: 1.3784 - 1.3688 - 1.3599

Resistance: 1.3883 - 1.4005

USD/JPY: The USDJPY pair showed a downward movement below the main resistance level of 110.93. As long as the price stays below 110.93, on a daily basis, we will follow 110.36 and 109.72 as a support level. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 110.93, the key resistance level can be found at 111.52.

Support : 110.36 - 109.72 - 10939

Resistance : 110.93 - 111.52 - 112.16

GOLD: Watch out for the 1785 main resistance level in the Gold Price. As long as the price stays below 1785, on a four-hourly basis, we will see 1763 and 1745 as support levels. Otherwise, if the price rises above 1785, the next daily resistance level can be found at 1805.

Support: 1763 - 1745 - 1736

Resistance: 1785 - 1805 - 1829

27 Jun 21 (Sun)

06:49 pm