Heads Up: US Nonfarm Payrolls Will Be Published This Week
EUR/USD: The US dollar fell to a one-month low last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve said the job market still had some ground to cover before it would be time to ease monetary stimulus.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remarked that interest rate hikes are a ways away and that the job market still had some ground to cover before the central bank begins to taper its assets.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Fed should start reducing its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases this fall and cut them fairly rapidly so the program ends in the first months of 2022 to pave the way for a rate increase that year if needed.
U.S. Economy grew a solid 6.5% in the second quarter of 2021 but it was lower than the 8.5% in forecasts.
Looking ahead, focus on the US Jobs Report on Friday. US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise 900K in July from 850K in the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 5.7% from 5.9%. Average hourly earnings are expected to come out 3.9%, year on a year basis.
In addition to that, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on Services PMI, ISM Manufacturing, and Non-Manufacturing PMI, as well as Factory Orders.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July is expected to rise slightly to 60.9 from 60.6. A better-than-expected realization may provide some support for the US Dollar.
If we look at the Eurozone, we will closely watch Manufacturing PMI for July. The data is expected to be 62.6, which is lower than the previous number of 63.4.
The EURUSD pair moved up above the 1.1867 main level. As long as the pair stays above 1.1867, on a four-hourly basis, we will follow 1.1919 as the main resistance level. On the downside, if the price drops back below 1.1867, the next support level will be at 1.1819
Support: 1.1867 - 1.1819 - 1.1744
Resistance : 1.1919 - 1.1994 - 1.2046
GBP/USD: In the upcoming week, keep your eye on the Bank of England Rate Decision. It is expected to keep the stimulus running at its current pace. Officials are likely to raise their inflation forecast for this year, but the outlook for growth remains uncertain amid concerns over the delta variant.
The GBPUSD pair closed last week above the main support level of 1.3883. As long as the price trades above 1.3883 on a four-hourly basis, we will see 1.4005 as the resistance level. Otherwise, if the pair drops below 1.3883, we will follow the next support level at 1.3784.
Support: 1.3883 - 1.3784 - 1.3688
Resistance: 1.4005 - 1.4329
USD/JPY: Watch out for the 109.72 daily resistance level in the USDJPY pair. As long as the pair stays below 109.72 on a daily basis, we will watch the support levels at 109.39 and 109.09. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 109.72, the next resistance level will be placed at 110.36
Support: 109.39 - 109.09 - 108.79
Resistance: 109.72 - 110.36 - 110.93
GOLD: The Gold price closed last week above the 1805 main level. As long as the price stays above 1805, on a daily basis, we will see the daily resistance level at 1829. On the downside, if the price breaks down below 1805, the next support level will be at 1785.
Support: 1805 - 1785 - 1763
Resistance: 1829 - 1854 - 1873
01 Aug 21 (Sun)