Weekly Technical Analysis For September 19th to 23rd, 2022

Watch Out For Fed Rate Decision This Week

EUR/USD: Last week, U.S. inflation turned out stronger than expected in August. In particular, the so-called core CPI rose a thumping 0.6%, twice what was expected, driving the annual core inflation rate up to 6.3% from 5.9% in July. That's the highest it's been since the 40-year high that it hit in March.

U.S. producer price inflation data further confirmed that inflation remained pinned near 40-year highs in August. This is likely to drive more sharp interest rate hikes by the Fed as it moves to combat heightened price pressures.

U.S. retail sales rose surprisingly in August by 0.3%, as a fall in gasoline prices prompted consumers to drop some of their recent caution with regard to other areas of spending.

Last Thursday, the World Bank warned that the world’s economy has been slowing sharply, and even a moderate hit to the global economy over the next year could tip it into recession as central banks simultaneously hike interest rates to combat persistent inflation.

In the upcoming week, watch out for on the Fed Monetary Policy Meeting this week. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce 0.75% rate hike. Markets have priced in a 75-basis-point rate increase, but some investors are bracing for a full percentage point hike - a move unthinkable just a short time ago.

The FOMC meeting will give markets new guidance about monetary policy outlook. 

Investors are concerned that an aggressive push higher on rates by the Fed could tip the economy into recession.

Moreover, keep your eye on business activity data and PMI numbers from the eurozone.

As long as the EURUSD stays above 0.9955 on a daily basis, we will watch the main resistance levels at 1.0027 and 1.0107. On the downside, if the price goes drops below 0.9955, the next support level will be at 0.9922.

Support: 0.9955 - 0.9922

Resistance: 1.0027 - 1.0107

GBP/USD: The BoE meets on Thursday for rate decision. Policymakers are expected to hike rates by another 50 basis points, which would bring the Bank Rate to 2.25%, although a 75-basis-point hike is still on the table.

As long as the GBPUSD pair stays below 1.1502 on a four-hourly basis, the selling pressure may continue . Otherwise, if the price goes beyond 1.1502. the next level will be at 1.1554.

Support: 1.1372

Resistance: 1.1502 - 1.1554 - 1.1649

CRUDE OIL: As long as the CRUDE OIL price stays below 86.55 on a daily basis, we will watch the main support level at 82.01. On the upside, if the price goes beyond 86.55, the next level will be at 91.93.

Support: 82.01 - 76.41

Resistance: 86.55 - 91.93 - 96.92

GOLD: As long as the GOLD price stays below 1684 on a four-hourly basis, we will see the main support levels at 1667 and 1650. On the upside, if the price move up 1684, the next level will be at 1698.
Support: 1667 - 1650

Resistance: 1684 - 1698 - 1711

18 Sep 22 (Sun)

09:40 pm